ASSESSING THE VARIABILITY OF INFLOWS AT ASWAN HIGH DAM DUE TO OUTFLOW CHANGES FROM VICTORIA LAKE RESULTING FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

In this research the Nile Decision Support System (NILE-DST) was tooled to assess the variability
of the inflows at Aswan High Dam (AHD) due to the outflow changes from Victoria Lake
resulting fiom climate changes and the increase in water demands. Different scenarios were
established where the outflow fiom Victoria Lake was decreased by 3,10,18,25,37,55,75 and
100%. The scenarios considered a time span of 63 years (1913-1976) in which a natural flow
period (19 13- l976), a dry period (1920-1960) and a wet period (1961-1976) were distinguished.
The model was run and results of inflows at the different river nodes (i.e. Victoria Lake,
Packwash, Mogalla, Sudd Exit, Malakal, Gab1 El-Aulia, Dongola and AHD) and the properties of
the reservoirs (i.e. storage capacity, water level and evaporation)] were obtained. These results
were analyzed and plotted. Fmm these plots the impact of the variability in the outflow fiom
Victoria on the AKD was assessed. On the other hand, an adaptive solution (constructing a
diversion canal "Jonglie Canal" to by-pass the swamps in order to decrease the evaporation losses)
was proposed in order to compensate for the inflow reduction at AHD. As a concluszon from this
research, it was found that the AHD will be considerably affected by the variability of the outflows
fiom Victoria Lake. It was also found that Jonglie Canal would serve as a compensator.